A substantial public debate is concerned about declining growth and secular stagnation with negative consequences for jobs and earnings.
The Lead Article of the Journal of Population Economics Issue 2 of the anniversary volume (now available online) takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused short-term issues.
Enjoy 6-weeks free download of the lead article:
Demographic dynamics and long-run development: insights for the secular stagnation debate
by Matteo Cervellati, Uwe Sund and Klaus F. Zimmermann, J Popul Econ (2017) 30(2): 401–432.
The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed.
At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development.
The evidence presented in the paper suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.