#2021-035 Longing for which home: Evidence from global aspirations to stay, return or migrate onwards
Els Bekaert, Amelie Constant, Killian Foubert & Ilse Ruyssen
Aspirations provide the underlying dynamics of the behavior of
individuals whether they are realized or not. Knowledge about the
characteristics and motives of those who aspire to leave the host
country is key for both host and home countries to formulate appropriate
and effective policies in order to keep their valued immigrants or
citizens and foster their (re-)integration. Based on unique
individual-level Gallup World Polls data, a random utility model, and a
multinomial logit we model the aspirations or stated preferences of
immigrants across 138 countries worldwide. Our analysis reveals
selection in characteristics, a strong role for soft factors like social
ties and sociocultural integration, and a faint role for economic
factors. Changes in circumstances in the home and host countries are
also important determinants of aspirations. Results differ by the host
countries’ level of economic development.
Keywords: Economics of Immigrants, Geographic Labor Mobility, Public
Policy, Micro-economic Behavior, Underlying Principles, International
Migration, Large Data Sets, Modeling and Analysis
JEL Classification: J15, J61, J68, D01, F22, C55